Range Bound

Good Afternoon,

When I said "up week" in yesterday's blog, I wasn't thinking it could be this big. But, then again, we do have the Fed tomorrow. What does the market like to do ahead of the Fed? It tests it. Remember all of the "stress tests"? Well, the Fed has passed every one. Will they disappoint this time? I doubt it. So there should be some type of accomadative rhetoric that takes back any "when" scenario for tightening. If for some reason, the rhetoric does come across with an "end in sight", then the markets could very well be very, very overvalued.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentals first. Bernanke, Bernanke, Bernanke. That is right. We have the FOMC up on Wednesday. We also have Philly Manufacturing and claims. We already had the NY fed and that was better than expectations. 

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Without economic data, we let the international fundamentals take over: Greece. Europe was down pretty significantly for a 3rd day. The SPX is now close to its support area of 1608 and 1600. I haven't looked below that for technical levels using support, moving averages, or GASP!! a Fibonacci that shows retracement level to the downside. If we break 1600, I will surely provide you with those levels.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Finally, we can use Fibonacci's on the SPX as we did have a sizeable retracement (4.5%). Now the question becomes, will we see a lower low and then, possibly a change in the sequence.

But first, the fundamentals. A rather light week. But we do get retail sales, claims, PPI (yawn) and consumer sentiment. I say "yawn" by the inflation index as we know we don't have an inflationary problem. We do have higher interest rates as of late though as today, we saw equities and bonds sell off. Will rates continue to rise if equities head lower?

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Is it really back? Is Fundamental Data going to drive the markets? Today we saw dollar strength as the US Treasuries broke on better than expected economic data (see CHPM). But late in the day, we had money flow back into the US Treasuries as money came out of equities. So you saw USD strength early and weakness late on fundamental news - now this makes sense!!

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentals don't pick up until tomorrow.  Technically, I posted 3 support lines yesterday. Guess what? Today, we found one. We found that 1640 support level and bounced back up to another support area (where we close) at the 1650 level. Will we actually have two negative performing weeks in a row in the SPX? Or will the buyers step in to take us to new highs? Also, what is it with Tuesday's? Anyone ready for a down Tuesday? CNBC won't know what to do with themselves!

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Last Thursday and Friday showed the bulls in charge. With so much buying pressure and a quiet "international event" weekend, stockss took off.

Looking at the broad index, we have some very local support and resistance ranges. What will get the SPX to push above the resistance line? Will it be good economic news or bad economic news?

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Thanks for listening in on IBFX's "Open Discussion on Technical Analysis" webinar last evening. We stressed the importance of fundamental analysis when setting up a technical analysis-based trade (and trading parameters).

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

For additional reads on the Bernanke statements, please refer to fundamental analysis stories such as this Bloomberg article.

Yesterday's post contained a very important statement. It was the last sentence, which read: "continue to do your fundamental analysis every day". That is very important, especially when Central Bankers are speaking. Today, Bernanke gave us the fireworks.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Looking forward to tomorrow night's IBFX "Open Discussion on Technical Analysis" webinar. Will we be able to talk about a break lower in the EUR as the USD shines on as the shining star?

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.