Trend Following

Good Afternoon,

The fundamental show continues! We had a poor initial claims number yesterday. We had a disastrous durable goods number today. Remember, durable goods are big ticket items, so that is a reflection of capital spending. So with the continued bad data, we get a pop higher in equities. Why the pop? Well, Bernanke made comments and interestingly enough, the comments were made in a letter dated the 22nd of August - before the data came out. So there stands my conspiracy theory: The Fed gets data prior to us.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

Notice how I didn't mention fundamentals in Tuesday's commentary. It is rare that I don't mention them but the reason was clear. There aren't any. Today, we finally have some data to digest. Initial claims are creeping back towards the 375k. Not a surprise as businesses (if they are to hire) may be waiting for the election in November. We also had existing home sales and those were positive. The data "onslaught" continues tomorrow with Durable Goods (a highly volatile number) but a good measure of capital spending.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

You can make up all of the fundamental stories you want, but when it comes down to it, technical analysis won out today. And the key word in our technical analysis is: resistance. Otherwise known as too little demand or overbought. How long will this "key" resistance level of 1425 in the SPX hold? It is anyone's guess. But with some key data later this week, if it is just soft enough...

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

A quiet fundamental week with claims and durable goods coming Thur/Fri.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

Here is an extended outlook on fundamentals:

We are getting through the end of this earnings season - so just a smattering of companies left to report. Next week, we have claims and durable goods and then it gets really exciting.

**8/31 Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole

**9/1 Draghi speaks at Jackson Hole

**9/3 Greece and Spain discussions

**9/3-9/4 Manufacturing data for Europe, China and US

**9/6 ECB meeting

**9/6 Merkel and Rajoy meeting

**9/7 US unemployment

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,
A quick look at fundamentals - claims are hovering above 350k. I am really not sure how easy it will be to get the moving average below 350k.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentals first: retail sales came in above expectations. Now let me ask you this? Is this back to school "sale" shopping? Are we paying full price? Is this rebound (the first in 5 months of data) due to more job security, a rosier future, etc... or because it was necessitated by the back to school rush/deals. We will find out during December's earnings periods where retailers show great numbers but poor margins. Keep an eye on retail sales as we head into the (gulp) next shopping period: the Holiday period.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentally, we have earnings, retail sales and claims, Philly Fed, and consumer sentiment.

Technically, we have a new "very local" resistance area in SPX at 1400-1405:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Above 1405 is the early summer high of 1425.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

A quick wrapup as the fundamental calendar is quiet and prices are within their average range. Again, notice that we rallied in equities - let's see where we close, but I am still in the bullish camp as there seem to be more buyers than sellers. It is pretty easy to have more buyers than sellers when there aren't any sellers!

For a quiet day, we had a nice rally in SPX off of its lower opening and that got forex pairs moving.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

The low volatility theme continues. I call these times, the "grind". You have to grind it out each and every day. Locations for entry should be thought through very carefully. Reasonable targets for profits are eseential to a realistic exit plan. And most importantly, being patient and learning to sit on your hands is essential. This low volatility period may not end any time soon due to central bank mingling, but at least we are getting closer to what I call the "Fall Session".

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.