Chart Patterns

Good Afternoon,

As I warned, whether the Fed does something or doesn't do anything, it is bullish. The markets got back most of what they lost yesterday and the Fed is still in play. I wonder how long they can stay in play. Oh yeah, forever! On a side note (because who really uses an economic calendar anyway), CHIPM came in as expected although the business barometer was says we are well below where we thought we would be and the next few months don't show much chance of improvement. Again, this type of language keeps the Fed in play.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

I haven't posted since Friday and I think you know why. Record low volume and tight, tight ranges. That may all be coming to an end soon as the data onslaught begins with claims tomorrow followed by CHIPM and Jackson Hole on Friday. 

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

The fundamental show continues! We had a poor initial claims number yesterday. We had a disastrous durable goods number today. Remember, durable goods are big ticket items, so that is a reflection of capital spending. So with the continued bad data, we get a pop higher in equities. Why the pop? Well, Bernanke made comments and interestingly enough, the comments were made in a letter dated the 22nd of August - before the data came out. So there stands my conspiracy theory: The Fed gets data prior to us.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

Notice how I didn't mention fundamentals in Tuesday's commentary. It is rare that I don't mention them but the reason was clear. There aren't any. Today, we finally have some data to digest. Initial claims are creeping back towards the 375k. Not a surprise as businesses (if they are to hire) may be waiting for the election in November. We also had existing home sales and those were positive. The data "onslaught" continues tomorrow with Durable Goods (a highly volatile number) but a good measure of capital spending.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

You can make up all of the fundamental stories you want, but when it comes down to it, technical analysis won out today. And the key word in our technical analysis is: resistance. Otherwise known as too little demand or overbought. How long will this "key" resistance level of 1425 in the SPX hold? It is anyone's guess. But with some key data later this week, if it is just soft enough...

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

A quiet fundamental week with claims and durable goods coming Thur/Fri.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,

Here is an extended outlook on fundamentals:

We are getting through the end of this earnings season - so just a smattering of companies left to report. Next week, we have claims and durable goods and then it gets really exciting.

**8/31 Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole

**9/1 Draghi speaks at Jackson Hole

**9/3 Greece and Spain discussions

**9/3-9/4 Manufacturing data for Europe, China and US

**9/6 ECB meeting

**9/6 Merkel and Rajoy meeting

**9/7 US unemployment

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Morning,
A quick look at fundamentals - claims are hovering above 350k. I am really not sure how easy it will be to get the moving average below 350k.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Fundamentals first: retail sales came in above expectations. Now let me ask you this? Is this back to school "sale" shopping? Are we paying full price? Is this rebound (the first in 5 months of data) due to more job security, a rosier future, etc... or because it was necessitated by the back to school rush/deals. We will find out during December's earnings periods where retailers show great numbers but poor margins. Keep an eye on retail sales as we head into the (gulp) next shopping period: the Holiday period.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.