USD/CAD

After moving up 200 pips in a few days, CAD regains some ground as oil prices stop their slide.

Past Performance is not indicative of future results. 

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Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Evening,

I am going to continue my oil and USD/CAD tirade (see previous articles for earlier discussions), but first, as always, fundamentals. Empire State Manufacturing led us off and it was...negative. So too were the employment and new orders components. I am surprised the markets didn't jump 200 points! Bank of Japan press conference and claims on Thursday are the shining stars of a rather dull week of economic data. Usually, when there isn't any data the markets grind higher. Then again, when do the markets not grind higher.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

A rare weekend post from me. Sorry I didn't get this to you sooner, but I feel it is important.

Fundamentally, "QE to infinity and beyond" is in play. The economic calendar is pretty quiet this week - monitor Empire Fed on Monday and Thursday's claims and obviously any central bank/monetary policy chatter.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

Did anyone see weekly claims today? I knew it! Well, actually, good for you because they don't matter. Actually they do matter. The worse they get the better the equity markets get. Today's claims came in above expectations - a whopping 382k. This is bad, bad, bad. If this keeps up, I am expecting a negative monthly jobs number in the near future. 

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

 Let’s review the data. Unemployment claims have been tracking between 350k and 400k – this is a weekly number that gives you guidance to the monthly unemployment report. The 350k-400k average is consistent with -200k to +200k jobs lost/created per month. What isn’t consistent is the ADP jobs data –they were expecting a higher number. Remember, ADP is not a government number and has only been on the economic calendar for a few years and has a horrible track record for predicting the actual government number.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

As I warned, whether the Fed does something or doesn't do anything, it is bullish. The markets got back most of what they lost yesterday and the Fed is still in play. I wonder how long they can stay in play. Oh yeah, forever! On a side note (because who really uses an economic calendar anyway), CHIPM came in as expected although the business barometer was says we are well below where we thought we would be and the next few months don't show much chance of improvement. Again, this type of language keeps the Fed in play.

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.

Good Afternoon,

I haven't posted since Friday and I think you know why. Record low volume and tight, tight ranges. That may all be coming to an end soon as the data onslaught begins with claims tomorrow followed by CHIPM and Jackson Hole on Friday. 

Posted By: 

Brian Kahn

Brian provides regular commentary focusing on the relationships between various financial markets. An experienced trader and portfolio manager with over 15 years in the markets, Brian relies on fundamental and technical analysis to create trading plans for each and every market entry.