USD Downtrends on Fed Hopes
Good Afternoon,
Fundamentals first. What fundamentals you ask? Other than the continuation of the first part of "buy the rumor/sell the fact", what more do we need? The Fed speaks tomorrow and all bets on behalf of the traders are that they will deliver - hence the massive run up we have seen in equity prices over the past month. I think the markets are forcing their hand at ensuring the delivery of moer QE by going to these "lofty" levels and then saying to Ben: "you better give us what we want to hear, otherwise, we are really high over the past few weeks and probably really high overall given the poor economic data of late".
So, even though the Fed is in play, watch your calendar as things pick up with claims and Philly Fed on Thursday.
Technically, we know the SPX has moved from 1270 to 1350 over the past few weeks and now in the upper third of the 1420 to 1270 downmove. What is your risk to reward to buy equities up here? Will sellers come in as they take profits and purchase protection?
In forex, we had a trend up day. The first chart, the GBP/USD has a trendline that acted as support:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Next up, an above average trading range in the EUR/USD. It also had a trendline and it also had a BUFFALO BOUNCE:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
For the long term traders, especially those investors who own commodities, is the AUD/USD overbought at the 61.8/76.4 retracement area?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Link to recent IBFX Volatility Tool webinar
Enjoy the Fed tomorrow!
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Coach Brian
