Risk appetite enters a reversal area

Wednesday, Jul 18, 2012

Today’s AUD/CAD buy entry is done and what’s left is a lesson about trade selection, more specifically, time frame selection.

The Dow’s triple digit rally following Fed Chairman Bernanke’s second day of testimony is accompanied by a push to 90.00 on crude oil. July losses are being erased but before getting too bullish at these levels there are a few things to consider.

First, the U.S. Dollar Index is not falling too sharply on this rally. The index is finding buying support at the 83.00 major psychological level which is also five ticks from the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement at 83.05.

Second, the crude oil market is not necessarily being driven higher solely on the risk appetite seen in the Dow but rather a surprise drawdown in supplies. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results

The Dow’s trading higher in to a layer of resistance that marks the high end of the trading range and ultimately could be where the rally begins to exhaust.

 

Another troubling chart for bulls has got to be the AUD/JPY. The aussie has been outpacing most currencies to the upside and yet on a day where the yen should be weaker on the optimism equities market, the pair sits below the 200DMA.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

The daily AUD/JPY broke higher though a near-term triangle pattern that had formed but ultimately the momentum hit the selling pressure surrounding the 200DMA at 81.72.

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results

 The 200DMA will be an obstacle for AUD/JPY bulls as the yen was uncharacteristically strong on a day that equities rallied.

 

With the Dow reaching the range layer of resistance, the dollar finding major psychological level support and the AUD/JPY battling with the 200DMA, there is plenty of reason to see some near-term exhaustion in the risk appetite seen in today’s market.

 

As an active forex trader and Chief Currency Analyst for InterbankFX.com I do write for a number of sites all over the web and I am happy to say that I will be posting updates at www.IBFXconnect.com. My Activity Board will feature the trades from my trading account as well as intraday commentary.

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Posted By: 

Raghee Horner

Raghee Horner, chief currency analyst for IBFX, provides her personal daily trading tips and insights through Dailyforextradingedge.com. An experienced trader with over fifteen years in the markets, Raghee is the co-founder of EZ2Trade Software and has taught her brand of technical analysis and charting strategies to students all over the world. She is an international author and has taught currencies, futures, and equities trading for over a decade.
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